DESI - ARTICLE (Failing State)

Through two major attacks within a span of 20 days, the Maoist insurgents have put the entire Himalayan Kingdom on notice. On March 20-21, 2004, in their biggest strike since the beginning of the 'People's War', insurgents ransacked Beni Bazaar, headquarters of the Myagdi District, completely destroying the district administrative offices, police station and army barracks. Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) sources claimed that, out of the 5,000 insurgents involved in the attack, 500 were killed, and that security forces have foiled the Maoists attempt to 'capture the city'. According to official records, 207 dead bodies had been recovered so far, including 128 Maoists, 51 security force personnel and 28 civilians. But the Maoists 'supreme leader', Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, claimed that only 40 insurgents were killed in the incident. The insurgents have also captured 33 persons, including security force personnel, the District Officer and Deputy Superintendent of Police, and other bureaucrats, during the operation, and have raised the demand for the release of three Maoist leaders in return for these officials.

Earlier, on March 3, some 1,500 Maoists overran the Nepal Telecommunications Office, District Administration Office and a branch of the National Bank at the Bhojpur District headquarters, where at least 29 security force personnel and more than 50 insurgents were killed, and 10 SF personnel were abducted as 'war captives'.

Through these two attacks, the Maoists have clearly demonstrated that they had not weakened after the collapse of the ceasefire on August 27, 2003, as was widely presumed, and that they remain capable of major operations in any part of the country, including strong Army positions and security installations. While the Maoists' losses have been significant, the damage they have caused has also been heavy. Both sides are now claiming 'victory', but the incidents have clearly demonstrated the Maoists' capacity to unleash a new round of escalating terror in Nepal.

The attacks in the Myagdi and Bhojpur districts exemplify a pattern that had been common in the mid-western districts before the beginning of the peace talks in 2003. Though significant casualties were inflicted on the Maoist cadres, the scale and impact of these incidents brings into question the entire concept of joint mobilization (Unified Army) and the effectiveness of attempts to increase the strength and deployment of Armed Forces. The intensification of violence is also being seen as an effort to disrupt the emerging process for elections in the country, as well as pressure to restore talks for a negotiated solution. Prachanda has called on the United Nations (UN) and international human rights organisations to monitor the conflict situation and help conduct a 'peaceful' dialogue with the Government. The Government, on the other hand, has categorically rejected the Maoists' call for talks, stating that they would not give the Maoists another chance to further consolidate their military strength under cover of a 'peace process'. The Government is also firm on not permitting any third- party mediation, including efforts by the UN, in its internal conflict. Meanwhile, the Maoists have warned the Government that they would continue with the current series of 'military actions'.

A shift in strategy is visible in the present pattern of Maoist operations, with increasing focus on large scale operations in the plains areas, as against the earlier pattern of attacks in rural and hilly areas. There is a clear effort to demonstrate operational capacities throughout the country, and to create a stronghold in the Terai, as well as to strengthen their presence in the Eastern and Western Regions. In addition to the large scale attacks in Myagdi and
Bhojpur, the insurgents have been engineering a continuous succession of almost daily bomb attacks and landmine explosions virtually across the country; there have been at least 164 such attacks since the renewal of hostilities on August 27, 2003, and these have contributed enormously to a pervasive atmosphere of insecurity among the general public and a loss of confidence in the security forces and the Government.

Reports from the Beni Bazaar incident have shocked the security forces. The insurgents are said to have made use of a range of modern weapons, including 81mm mortars, rocket launchers, M16 and AK-47 rifles, machine guns and hand grenade. Most of the M-16 and AK-47 rifles, rocket launchers and machine guns had been looted from the Army in earlier operations. During the ceasefire period, the Maoists had reportedly also acquired arms and ammunitions from the Indian weapons black markets in Uttar Pradesh, through their contacts with Indian left-wing extremist groups, and had smuggled these through the Terai districts in Western and Mid- Western border areas. The Humla, Darchula and Baitadi border districts in the Far-Western Region have been used for their arms traffic.

The Home Ministry's latest report, released on March 13, discloses that that 2,178 persons have been killed, including 1534 Maoists, 365 security force personnel and 279 civilians, since the breakdown of the ceasefire in August 2003. Further, 160 policemen, 147 RNA soldiers and 58 Armed Police Force (APF) officials were killed. More than a third of the 4,000 Village Development Committee (VDC) buildings in the country are also reported to have been destroyed. Post offices, bridges and telecommunication and power stations in almost all the districts have been bombed. Telecommunication repeater stations in most of the hill districts have been damaged and are inoperative. The Maoists have attacked schools and colleges as well, declaring these as 'instruments of the state'. According to a Nepalese organization, Community Study and Welfare Centre, the violence has resulted in the displacement of some 350,000-400,000 persons. The Maoists have also 'conducted elections' in various areas under their control, including the Achham, Kalikot and Bajura districts in Mid-Western Nepal, in January 2004. Apart from declaring these as 'autonomous regions', the Maoists have created a structure of parallel governments called 'people's governments'. A majority of developmental projects and large-scale business establishments operate in these areas with the permission of these people's governments and pay 'tax' to them.

Major donor countries and International development projects are now threatening to revoke assistance if the conflict continues at the present pace, and observers have warned Nepal that it was evolving as a classic example of a 'failed state'. Within this broad scenario of chaos, there appears to be little prospect for a coherent political response from any of the mainstream political parties, who continue with their confrontation with King Gyanendra. The King has, in the meanwhile, broken their agitation for the restoration of Parliament, and, with the political parties completely alienated from mainstream politics, there appears to be little possibility of popular participation in the country's destiny, which remains, for the time being, at the mercy of the Army and the Maoists.

	Failing State By: P.G. Rajamohan, Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Through two major attacks within a span of 20 days, the Maoist insurgents have put the entire Himalayan Kingdom on notice. On March 20-21, 2004, in their biggest strike since the beginning of the 'People's War', insurgents ransacked Beni Bazaar, headquarters of the Myagdi District, completely destroying the district administrative offices, police station and army barracks. Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) sources claimed that, out of the 5,000 insurgents involved in the attack, 500 were killed, and that security forces have foiled the Maoists attempt to 'capture the city'. According to official records, 207 dead bodies had been recovered so far, including 128 Maoists, 51 security force personnel and 28 civilians. But the Maoists 'supreme leader', Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, claimed that only 40 insurgents were killed in the incident. The insurgents have also captured 33 persons, including security force personnel, the District Officer and Deputy Superintendent of Police, and other bureaucrats, during the operation, and have raised the demand for the release of three Maoist leaders in return for these officials. Earlier, on March 3, some 1,500 Maoists overran the Nepal Telecommunications Office, District Administration Office and a branch of the National Bank at the Bhojpur District headquarters, where at least 29 security force personnel and more than 50 insurgents were killed, and 10 SF personnel were abducted as 'war captives'. Through these two attacks, the Maoists have clearly demonstrated that they had not weakened after the collapse of the ceasefire on August 27, 2003, as was widely presumed, and that they remain capable of major operations in any part of the country, including strong Army positions and security installations. While the Maoists' losses have been significant, the damage they have caused has also been heavy. Both sides are now claiming 'victory', but the incidents have clearly demonstrated the Maoists' capacity to unleash a new round of escalating terror in Nepal. The attacks in the Myagdi and Bhojpur districts exemplify a pattern that had been common in the mid-western districts before the beginning of the peace talks in 2003. Though significant casualties were inflicted on the Maoist cadres, the scale and impact of these incidents brings into question the entire concept of joint mobilization (Unified Army) and the effectiveness of attempts to increase the strength and deployment of Armed Forces. The intensification of violence is also being seen as an effort to disrupt the emerging process for elections in the country, as well as pressure to restore talks for a negotiated solution. Prachanda has called on the United Nations (UN) and international human rights organisations to monitor the conflict situation and help conduct a 'peaceful' dialogue with the Government. The Government, on the other hand, has categorically rejected the Maoists' call for talks, stating that they would not give the Maoists another chance to further consolidate their military strength under cover of a 'peace process'. The Government is also firm on not permitting any third- party mediation, including efforts by the UN, in its internal conflict. Meanwhile, the Maoists have warned the Government that they would continue with the current series of 'military actions'. A shift in strategy is visible in the present pattern of Maoist operations, with increasing focus on large scale operations in the plains areas, as against the earlier pattern of attacks in rural and hilly areas. There is a clear effort to demonstrate operational capacities throughout the country, and to create a stronghold in the Terai, as well as to strengthen their presence in the Eastern and Western Regions. In addition to the large scale attacks in Myagdi and Bhojpur, the insurgents have been engineering a continuous succession of almost daily bomb attacks and landmine explosions virtually across the country; there have been at least 164 such attacks since the renewal of hostilities on August 27, 2003, and these have contributed enormously to a pervasive atmosphere of insecurity among the general public and a loss of confidence in the security forces and the Government. Reports from the Beni Bazaar incident have shocked the security forces. The insurgents are said to have made use of a range of modern weapons, including 81mm mortars, rocket launchers, M16 and AK-47 rifles, machine guns and hand grenade. Most of the M-16 and AK-47 rifles, rocket launchers and machine guns had been looted from the Army in earlier operations. During the ceasefire period, the Maoists had reportedly also acquired arms and ammunitions from the Indian weapons black markets in Uttar Pradesh, through their contacts with Indian left-wing extremist groups, and had smuggled these through the Terai districts in Western and Mid- Western border areas. The Humla, Darchula and Baitadi border districts in the Far-Western Region have been used for their arms traffic. The Home Ministry's latest report, released on March 13, discloses that that 2,178 persons have been killed, including 1534 Maoists, 365 security force personnel and 279 civilians, since the breakdown of the ceasefire in August 2003. Further, 160 policemen, 147 RNA soldiers and 58 Armed Police Force (APF) officials were killed. More than a third of the 4,000 Village Development Committee (VDC) buildings in the country are also reported to have been destroyed. Post offices, bridges and telecommunication and power stations in almost all the districts have been bombed. Telecommunication repeater stations in most of the hill districts have been damaged and are inoperative. The Maoists have attacked schools and colleges as well, declaring these as 'instruments of the state'. According to a Nepalese organization, Community Study and Welfare Centre, the violence has resulted in the displacement of some 350,000-400,000 persons. The Maoists have also 'conducted elections' in various areas under their control, including the Achham, Kalikot and Bajura districts in Mid-Western Nepal, in January 2004. Apart from declaring these as 'autonomous regions', the Maoists have created a structure of parallel governments called 'people's governments'. A majority of developmental projects and large-scale business establishments operate in these areas with the permission of these people's governments and pay 'tax' to them. Major donor countries and International development projects are now threatening to revoke assistance if the conflict continues at the present pace, and observers have warned Nepal that it was evolving as a classic example of a 'failed state'. Within this broad scenario of chaos, there appears to be little prospect for a coherent political response from any of the mainstream political parties, who continue with their confrontation with King Gyanendra. The King has, in the meanwhile, broken their agitation for the restoration of Parliament, and, with the political parties completely alienated from mainstream politics, there appears to be little possibility of popular participation in the country's destiny, which remains, for the time being, at the mercy of the Army and the Maoists.
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